In this episode we trace the sanctions chain from June 2024’s hit on the Moscow Exchange to 2025’s tighter price caps, ship designations, and threatened secondary tariffs. We explain how OFAC’s updated guidance widened risks for foreign banks; how maritime rules, insurance proofs, and tanker blacklists raise Russia’s costs; why EU/UK’s July 2025 move to a floating cap (~$47.60) deepens discounts; and how refinery outages from Ukrainian strikes add domestic stress. We unpack the paradox of a stronger ruble—good for inflation optics, bad for budget conversion—and the Kremlin’s “Type‑C” and swap workarounds to unfreeze payments. Finally, we map scenarios if the White House follows through with secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. The through‑line is simple: it’s not “are barrels moving,” but at what price, with what frictions, and how slowly does cash get home.
