The Alaska summit is set for August 15, with the White House billing Trump’s meeting with Putin as a “listening exercise.” European leaders and President Zelensky moved quickly to align positions, stressing that no peace can be negotiated without Ukraine and pushing for robust security guarantees. In London, JD Vance and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy convened partners at Chevening House, signaling that the agenda won’t be US‑Russia only. Meanwhile, the TRIPP agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan—brokered at the White House on August 8—has already narrowed Moscow’s room to maneuver in the Caucasus. We lay out how Alaska functions as bait (the optics of a deal, talk of territorial issues) and as a trap (a trilateral possibility, European red lines, and sanctions pressure), then run three scenarios—texted ceasefire mechanics, photo‑op with no framework, or postponement—and the costs each option forces on the Kremlin’s narrative and budget math.
